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    Jackson Financial (JXN)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 26, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$85.39Last close (Feb 20, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$87.08Open (Feb 21, 2025)
    Price Change
    $1.69(+1.98%)
    • Jackson Financial maintains a strong capital position, particularly within their captive reinsurer Brooke Re, holding capital well above the minimum required levels, which indicates financial strength and provides significant financial flexibility to support future growth and capital return initiatives.
    • The company is actively expanding its investment management business, PPM, including the recent hiring of an experienced emerging market debt team, demonstrating a commitment to grow PPM's capabilities and potentially increase its contribution to the company's overall strategy and earnings diversification.
    • Management's proactive approach to refining actuarial assumptions, specifically regarding withdrawal behaviors, highlights their focus on accurate projections and effective risk management, which can lead to improved financial performance and stability.
    • Elevated policy surrender rates: The company experienced a surrender rate of 13% in the current quarter, which is significantly higher than the typical expected rates of 8% to 9%. This increase in surrenders could negatively impact financial performance.
    • Adjustments to actuarial assumptions leading to charges: The company had to adjust their actuarial assumptions related to the frequency of withdrawals, resulting in a charge during the quarter. This may indicate potential weaknesses in their modeling and could lead to future negative adjustments.
    • Regulatory and capital return constraints: Despite having excess capital, the company's ability to return capital to shareholders may be constrained due to regulatory considerations and management's strategy to maintain higher capital levels. This could limit shareholder returns despite the company's strong capital position.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Consolidated Revenue

    Declined approximately 94% (from $4,124 million in Q4 2023 to $225 million in Q4 2024)

    A dramatic contraction in consolidated revenue reflects a severe reversal in revenue components compared to the prior period. This extreme downward swing suggests that factors such as unfavorable derivative and reinsurance results—previously buoying revenues—turned negative, compounded by broader market volatility impacting key revenue streams.

    Operating Income

    Declined by roughly 7.8% (from $411 million in Q3 2024 to $380 million in Q4 2024)

    Operating income edged lower as higher operating costs and market-induced pressures partially offset gains in other areas. Although more stable than revenue, the modest decline is attributable to cost pressures and lower investment returns relative to the previous quarter, indicating that the operating performance struggled to fully capitalize on previous period strengths.

    Net Income

    Reversed from a loss of $469 million in Q3 2024 to a gain of $334 million in Q4 2024

    A strong rebound in net income was driven by a turnaround in market-dependent areas such as reinsured business and hedging results. Comparatively, while Q3 2024 recorded significant losses due to adverse market movements, Q4 2024 benefitted from better managing those exposures, leading to a net recovery in profitability.

    Basic EPS

    Improved from –$6.14 in Q3 2024 to $4.50 in Q4 2024

    The EPS recovery reflects the net income rebound together with a reduced share count from repurchase activity. The combination of reversing losses and capital structure adjustments translated into a stark improvement in basic EPS compared to the previous period.

    Depreciation & Amortization

    Increased by approximately 94% (from $142 million in Q3 2024 to $276 million in Q4 2024)

    The sharp rise in depreciation and amortization expenses likely reflects updated amortization schedules or revaluations of capitalized assets. Such an increase—almost doubling compared to the previous period—suggests that accounting adjustments or increased capital investments have significantly altered expense recognition.

    Retail Annuities Revenue

    Dropped from $1,344 million in Q3 2024 to –$2,031 million in Q4 2024

    A striking reversal in the Retail Annuities segment indicates that revenue-driving factors from the prior period (e.g., strong fee income and investment performance) turned adverse. The negative revenue suggests that adjustments such as lower premiums or significant losses in derivative/margin components overtook previous gains.

    Fee Income

    Surged dramatically from $12 million in Q3 2024 to $8,047 million in Q4 2024

    An unprecedented jump in fee income denotes a dramatic change in underlying business metrics—likely from a substantial increase in average separate account values and robust growth in annuity assets. This surge over previous modest levels indicates a major shift in revenue recognition or asset performance relative to the prior period.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Free Capital Generation

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to exceed $1 billion

    no prior guidance

    Capital Return to Shareholders

    FY 2025

    Capital Return Targets for 2025: Anticipates an increase if performance continues as expected; details to be shared

    Targeted total capital return between $700 million and $800 million

    no prior guidance

    RBC Ratio

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Maintain a minimum RBC ratio of 425% (current level at 572% as of end 2024)

    no prior guidance

    Holding Company Liquidity

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Plans to maintain more than $700 million in highly liquid assets

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Free Capital Generation
    FY 2024
    Exceed $1 billion
    $1.1B for the first nine months
    Beat
    Capital Return to Shareholders
    FY 2024
    Deliver in the upper half of $550 million to $650 million
    $646 million (Share repurchases: Q1:120, Q2:109, Q3:114, Q4:99; Dividends: Q1:67, Q2:62, Q3:64, Q4:11)
    Met
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Capital Position and Capital Generation

    In Q2 and Q3, Jackson consistently described its strong capital position (e.g. cash and liquid asset levels above minimum buffers, RBC ratios in the mid-550%-570% range) and robust capital generation (after‐tax figures, free capital, and returns).

    Q4 continued to emphasize a very strong capital position with over $700 million in cash/liquid assets, an RBC ratio of 572%, and record free capital generation including dividends and share repurchases.

    Consistent and increasingly positive: Metrics remain strong with improved free cash flow and enhanced shareholder returns, reflecting a sustained positive sentiment.

    Brooke Re

    In Q2 and Q3, the discussion on Brooke Re centered on its role in enhancing capital stability, with mentions of stable capitalization well above regulatory minimums, reduced volatility, and improved hedging alignment.

    In Q4, Brooke Re was again noted for its solid capital stability along with emerging investor concerns regarding transparency, prompting plans for additional year‐end disclosures.

    Stable yet evolving: The core stability remains positive, while the added focus on transparency indicates a shift toward addressing investor concerns.

    Actuarial Assumptions

    Q3 discussed updated assumptions with a significant negative impact (a $514 million year‐to‐date hit from higher lapse/withdrawal rates) while noting the annual review process; Q2 did not feature detailed commentary on this topic.

    Q4 provided further updates with a $419 million unfavorable impact due to refined assumptions on withdrawal frequency and mortality, reflecting ongoing challenges in accurately modeling policyholder behavior.

    Consistently challenging: Negative impacts persist while the company refines its models, indicating a steady but cautious sentiment about projection accuracy.

    Hedging Strategies and Derivatives Exposure

    Q2 and Q3 discussions focused on a hedging program that included significant exposure to interest rate and equity hedges, with mixed results (net hedge losses in Q2 and Q3 offset by gains in MRB and hedging efficiencies via the RILA business).

    Q4 reported a more economic hedging approach with a net gain in hedging results, alongside noted losses on hedging assets due to rising long‐term rates, but overall improved stability in managing market volatility.

    Improving performance: While hedging challenges persist due to market conditions, the Q4 results indicate an improved and more effective hedging strategy relative to earlier periods.

    Product Diversification and Investment Expansion

    In Q2 and Q3, Jackson highlighted robust growth in RILA sales, active spread business in fixed/fixed-index annuities, and steady progress in expanding investment capabilities, including digital initiatives and PPM portfolio quality improvements.

    In Q4, product diversification was reinforced by record RILA sales, new product enhancements like the Plus Income living benefit, and continued expansion in advisory and spread business, further underscoring investment growth.

    Continuously positive: The company’s focus on diversifying product lines and expanding investments remains strong with added innovation and record sales, reflecting a sustained positive outlook.

    Policy Surrender and Lapse Rates

    Q3 noted elevated lapse rates driven by strong equity performance and a year‐to‐date negative impact of $514 million on profitability, while Q2 mentioned some surrender activity offset by strong separate account performance.

    Q4 continued to report elevated surrender and lapse rates due to robust market conditions and older policies exiting surrender periods, impacting profitability with a $419 million adverse effect in the actuarial review.

    Persistently negative: Elevated policy surrenders remain a recurring concern with continued negative profitability impacts, suggesting ongoing challenges despite mitigation efforts.

    Regulatory Constraints

    Q2 and Q3 did not explicitly mention regulatory constraints affecting capital return initiatives; discussions focused more on capital strength and disciplined returns.

    Q4 introduced explicit discussions on regulatory constraints, including the need for regulatory discussions on distributions and maintaining minimum operating capital for Brooke Re, which now influences capital return strategies.

    Emerging factor: Regulatory constraints are now being highlighted as a moderating influence on capital return initiatives, marking a new area of focus compared to previous periods.

    Market Sensitivity to Equity Performance

    In Q2 and Q3, equity market performance was acknowledged as a double-edged sword—it boosted variable annuity AUM and fee income but also increased lapse rates and basis risk, with effective hedging mitigating some impacts.

    Q4 continued to see market sensitivity with positive effects on capital generation and fee income but also contributed to elevated policy surrenders and adjustments in hedging, reflecting balanced risk management.

    Steadily managed: Market sensitivity remains a constant influence, with Jackson employing hedging and diversification to balance the benefits of rising equity markets against the risks of higher lapses and volatility.

    1. Assumption Changes Impact
      Q: Did you consider changing lapse assumptions?
      A: Don explained they reviewed all assumptions during their annual unlocking and decided not to change the long-term lapse assumption despite higher lapses and exchange activity. The $26 million unfavorable impact on operating earnings was primarily due to mortality, and the non-operating earnings impact of $419 million was mainly from refining projections on withdrawal behavior for policies with GMWBs.

    2. Capital Return Plans
      Q: Why not return more excess capital?
      A: Don shared they aim for sustainable capital returns, maintaining a significant buffer above their 425% RBC minimum. They expect RBC levels to decrease over time rather than through a major one-time transaction. Distributions are subject to regulatory discussions, and the holdco cash provides flexibility for growth and strategic opportunities.

    3. Brooke Re Capitalization
      Q: How do you ensure Brooke Re is well capitalized?
      A: Don noted they provided extensive disclosures on Brooke Re last year and will continue to manage it as a long-term, self-sustaining entity. They will share any need for additional capital or when they extract capital, providing additional disclosures at year-end.

    4. Free Capital Generation Guidance
      Q: Is strong capital generation sustainable?
      A: Don explained that the $1 billion+ guidance for 2025 accounts for a non-recurring 2024 tax benefit, normalizing 2024's capital generation to around $1.1 billion. They have considered market sensitivities and are comfortable with the guidance.

    5. Lapse Rate Assumptions
      Q: What is your terminal lapse rate assumption?
      A: Don stated their typical lapse rate assumption for policies at the money is around 8% to 9%. Despite elevated lapses, they reviewed surrender assumptions and decided not to make changes at this point.

    6. Brooke Re Guardrails
      Q: Are there guardrails on Brooke Re's practices?
      A: Don said that the scenario generator changes are largely not applicable to Brooke Re. The primary guardrail is their minimum operating capital committed to Michigan, which they are well above as of 2024 year-end.

    7. PPM's Future Role
      Q: Will PPM become a bigger part of strategy?
      A: Laura affirmed that PPM is a core part of their business, supporting the general account and corporate strategy. Craig mentioned PPM's growth efforts, including hiring an emerging market debt team from Western Asset Management, illustrating their commitment to expanding capabilities.

    8. Brooke Re 2024 Results
      Q: Explain the $200 million capital increase in Brooke Re.
      A: Don detailed that differences between consolidated results and Brooke Re stem from using a modified GAAP approach, differences in blocks of business (e.g., not reinsuring RILA to Brooke Re), and specific modifications like fixed volatility assumptions and haircuts to guarantee fee streams.

    Research analysts covering Jackson Financial.